Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.626752 2.803962 2.993412 3.212113 3.459021 3.730823 4.055013
2025-03-09 2.355654 2.592395 2.859243 3.186017 3.580705 4.049310 4.659427
2025-03-16 2.191262 2.461352 2.777022 3.180171 3.692202 4.337212 5.240621
2025-03-23 2.091158 2.388278 2.746060 3.219580 3.848151 4.684157 5.940846
2025-03-30 1.973464 2.280784 2.658913 3.172745 3.878157 4.857440 6.418250
2025-04-06 1.873416 2.186396 2.578438 3.123186 3.893103 5.003509 6.872148
2025-04-13 1.773081 2.084585 2.480112 3.039227 3.847702 5.050103 7.167531
2025-04-20 1.729521 2.052502 2.469797 3.073009 3.972055 5.366252 7.984472
2025-04-27 1.700243 2.036592 2.478786 3.132682 4.138443 5.769707 9.063490
2025-05-04 1.672173 2.020127 2.484998 3.187280 4.300665 6.188751 10.301932
2025-05-11 1.620160 1.968480 2.438904 3.160000 4.327493 6.371259 11.083970
2025-05-18 1.574141 1.922810 2.398528 3.137915 4.359564 6.566319 11.961480
2025-05-25 1.528688 1.876842 2.356526 3.112164 4.385839 6.760364 12.933590
2025-06-01 1.486935 1.834366 2.317499 3.088394 4.413133 6.961233 14.020660
2025-06-08 1.453371 1.801937 2.291351 3.082905 4.471560 7.235564 15.474220
2025-06-15 1.433812 1.788390 2.292085 3.120308 4.611074 7.710749 17.914377
2025-06-22 1.393956 1.744270 2.245037 3.075859 4.592568 7.824747 19.113886
2025-06-29 1.355782 1.701337 2.198059 3.028800 4.564816 7.912899 20.288828
2025-07-06 1.311363 1.648095 2.133577 2.949018 4.467165 7.817440 20.604380
2025-07-13 1.297139 1.638302 2.134982 2.981129 4.592965 8.302218 24.175770
2025-07-20 1.289497 1.637737 2.150325 3.037819 4.774096 8.976053 29.895537
2025-07-27 1.280928 1.635394 2.162602 3.089656 4.951082 9.691002 37.711742
2025-08-03 1.255376 1.606911 2.132459 3.063760 4.958461 9.912384 42.231014